# The recurrence: recognising an old fault in new clothes

> Recurrences are rarely recognised, because the second occurrence presents differently — another site, another symptom, another team — and the only thing shared is the mechanism, which is precisely what the first write-up did not record. So an organisation solves the same fault repeatedly and experiences it as bad luck.

Source: https://ronutz.com/en/practice/the-recurrence  
Updated: 2026-08-09

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## The same fault does not look the same twice

Eleven months ago a batch job overran and exhausted a connection pool, and the symptom was checkout failures. This morning a reporting export overran and exhausted the same pool, and the symptom is slow logins.

Different trigger, different symptom, different team reporting it, different engineer investigating. **The mechanism is identical and nobody will notice**, because the only thing the two incidents share is the part nobody wrote down.

> **Recurrence is invisible at the surface, and the surface is all the record retains.**

## Why the memory does not help

Somebody in the room usually says *"I feel like we've seen something like this before"* — and cannot say where, or when, or what the outcome was. That feeling is a real signal and a useless index.

Three things defeat institutional memory here:

**The interval outlives the team.** A fault with a ten-month period will cross a staff rotation, a reorganisation, or a contract change. The second occurrence is met by people who were not present for the first.

**The record is filed by cause.** Which the current investigation does not yet have — the [knowledge capture](https://ronutz.com/en/practice/knowledge-capture-that-gets-found) problem exactly, and the reason symptom-titled pages matter more than tidy ones.

**The first one was closed as resolved.** If it was declared fixed, nobody is looking for a repeat — the record actively argues against the connection, which is the cost [the fix you cannot prove worked](https://ronutz.com/en/practice/the-fix-you-cannot-prove-worked) warns about, arriving eleven months late.

## The tells

None is proof; each is worth ten seconds:

- **Somebody half-remembers it.** Treat this as a search instruction, not as an opinion, and search by symptom rather than by their recollection.
- **The fix that was applied before and did not stick.** Especially one nobody can explain — an unexplained fix is a strong candidate for having never worked.
- **The same class of component**, in a different place. Two different pools, both exhausting, is a pattern about pools rather than about either one.
- **A round-ish interval.** Monthly, quarterly, end-of-year. Things that recur on a business calendar are recurring for business-calendar reasons.
- **A write-up that ends in *still unexplained*.** Those sections exist for exactly this moment, which is why [the write-up](https://ronutz.com/en/practice/the-write-up) insists on them.

## Ask at the start, not at the end

The single change that makes recurrence findable: **run the check in the first ten minutes, not in the review.**

At the end it is archaeology and nobody is funded for it. At the start it is a search that costs two minutes and can collapse the entire investigation — because if this is a recurrence, somebody has already done the narrowing, and the previous write-up's dead-end list saves the hours it cost the first time.

It also changes what you look at. An investigation that knows it may be a repeat asks *what is the same*, which is the mechanism, rather than *what changed*, which is the trigger — and the trigger is different every time by definition.

## What identifying a recurrence changes

**The remedy tier moves.** A second occurrence is the evidence that makes the structural remedy fundable. *"This is the fourth occurrence; here are the dates"* is an argument in a way that four unlinked tickets are not — which is why [prevention that survives the budget](https://ronutz.com/en/practice/prevention-that-survives-the-budget) treats the declined structural proposal as worth writing down. **The recurrence is when that declination gets cashed.**

**The claim about the previous fix gets revisited.** Either it never addressed the mechanism, or it addressed one path to it and there is a second. Both are findings, and both are invisible without the link.

**The knowledge consolidates.** This is the moment to collapse the incidents into one living page with dated occurrences, rather than filing a second write-up that will be equally unfindable in eleven months.

## The recurrence check

Five questions, at the start of an incident:

1. **Search the symptom** — in the reporter's words, in whatever people actually search. Not the cause; you do not have it.
2. **Search the error string**, verbatim.
3. **Has this class of component failed this way anywhere else?** Not this device — this kind of device.
4. **Does the interval match anything on the business calendar?**
5. **Is there an open *still unexplained* from a previous incident that this could be?**

And one line for the write-up either way, because a negative result is worth recording too:

> **"Checked against prior incidents on symptom and error string; no match"** — so the next person, eleven months from now, knows the search was run and can weigh it rather than repeat it.
